Think tank: China economy to grow over 9% in 2009

　　Chinese economy is forecast to grow by more than 9 percent next year, according to an annual blue paper released by the Chinese Academy of Social Science on Tuesday.

　　Despite the huge uncertainty in 2009, China could still achieve a 9-percent growth as long as it unveils timely and suitable macro-economic control measures to boost domestic demand, said the blue paper.

　　Economic growth slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter from 10.4 percent in the first half and 11.9 percent last year. Economic data for October and November showed further downside risks.

　　Amid rising worries over an economic slump, China unveiled a 4 trillion yuan (581 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package on Nov. 9 to boost domestic demand. It has also cut the lending rate by 1.08 percentage points as of Nov. 27, the largest reduction in 11 years and the fourth cut since mid September.

　　The government think tank also said the consumer inflation could be below 5 percent next year.

　　The agency called to tap domestic demand potential and improve foreign trade polices to help exporters through the hard times. It also urged to grasp the opportunity of slumping oil prices to reform the pricing mechanism of energy.

　　中国社会科学院２日在京发布２００９年《经济蓝皮书》。《经济蓝皮书》预测２００９年中国ＧＤＰ增长率虽然可能将继续有所回落，但仍有望保持９％以上，通货膨胀率也有望控制在５％以下。

　　据介绍，当前国际环境中不确定不稳定因素增多，国内经济运行中的一些矛盾也比较突出，保持经济平稳较快发展面临的挑战和困难增大。蓝皮书初步判断，２００９年虽然仍然存在重大的不确定因素，但是只要宏观调控措施及时得当，在外需增长显著减缓的条件下，积极扩大内需特别是消费需求，稳定投资，适度增加非生产性投资，加快推进社会主义新农村建设，加快转变经济发展方式，加快关键性领域改革步伐，就有望实现上述目标。

　　蓝皮书说，当前调控的重点应由主要防通胀转为主要保持经济适度快速增长，同时应处理好经济增长速度与控制通货膨胀之间的关系；处理好农民增收与控制通货膨胀之间的关系；处理好理顺资源要素价格与控制通货膨胀之间的关系。

　　蓝皮书强调，在防止经济增速过多过快下滑，保持平稳较快增长时，还必须十分重视转变经济发展方式。在经济高速增长时期，就业较为充分，居民、企业、政府的收入增加较多，许多结构性问题和深层次问题就被掩盖下来，当经济增长速度持续过快发展时，即使总量供给能够满足需求扩张的需要，结构性供需矛盾也能产生通货膨胀问题。

　　为能继续保持平稳较快发展的基本面，蓝皮书提出了以下政策：建议２００９年宏观调控以“保增长、促转型”为宏观调控的基本取向；实行积极的财政政策，更多地发挥市场配置资源的作用；实行稳健的货币政策；加大政府对保障性住房投资，稳定房地产市场；完善消费政策，进一步挖掘消费增长潜力；完善外贸政策，帮助外向型企业渡过难关；抓住有利时机，理顺资源能源价格。    

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